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2019 smart lock development trend forecast



There are only 4 days left in 2018, and 2019 is coming soon. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, smart lockers talk about the most, what did you gain in 2018? How is the industry developing in 2019? In 2019, what kind of development trend will the smart lock industry show? In the face of the future, no one can accurately predict how the smart lock industry develops, but from the past 2018, everything can be seen in the development trend of 2019.

According to the "2018 China Smart Lock Industry White Paper" released by the National Lock Information Center, the production and sales volume in the first 11 months of 2018 has exceeded 12 million sets. It is expected that the production and sales volume of 2018 will be between 13 million and 15 million sets. It is a foregone conclusion that the annual output value of the whole industry will break through 10 billion yuan.
In terms of growth rate, the compound growth rate in the past three years has exceeded 70%. It can be said that this speed is very gratifying. From the perspective of the number of enterprises, the number of enterprises involved in the production, research and development and sales of smart locks is expected to exceed 2,000. There are many participating companies, and the industry is currently in a state of oversupply.
At this rate, the market growth rate in 2019 is bound to exceed 50%. This means that in 2019, the production and sales volume of China's smart lock industry will be between 1900 and 22 million sets, and the output value will reach about 15 billion. However, the production and sales volume will be more concentrated in the TOP20 brand, and the small brands and small enterprises will get less.

In the coming 2018, about 15 million sets of production and sales, and the output value of 10 billion yuan will be distributed to more than 2,000 enterprises. On average, each company has less than 10,000 sets of production and sales volume, and the average annual output value of each enterprise is about 5 million. In the actual investigation of "The World of Door Locks", there are many small brands and small workshops with an annual production and sales volume of less than 3,000 sets. Even many enterprises have exceeded 1,000 sets of monthly shipments.

It can be seen that more than 80% of the 2000 enterprises are in a state of loss. In the coming 2018, many companies have chosen to leave because they can't earn money. In 2019, as sales are more concentrated on the head brand, the speed of shuffling will be faster, and the number of companies that have been eliminated will be eliminated. Will grow exponentially. Therefore, shuffling will be a life-and-death that many companies without strength, no brand, no channels, no quality can hide.

In 2018, in addition to the "outbreak" and "shuffle" keywords in the smart lock industry, the "thousand yuan smart lock" has also become the focus of attention.
In 2018, the battle for thousands of smart locks was initiated by 360. On the eve of the "Double Eleven" in 2018, 360 suddenly announced the launch of a smart lock of 999 yuan, and then dropped to 699 yuan (not included), followed by Xiaomi, Luke-OJJ, Deschman, and NetEase. Let this war escalate again. Although before this, there were many smart locks of two or three hundred yuan on the platform of many other e-commerce platforms, but most of them were small brands (even without brands), so they did not attract too much attention from smart lockers. Nowadays, this price war has been picked up by the Internet giants, so it has received much attention.
In 2019, I believe that with the upgrade of the competitive landscape, not only will many three non-products join the battle of thousands of smart locks, but also more famous brands, cross-border brands and industry head enterprises will join this battle. Big battle. Therefore, the thousand yuan smart lock will become one of the main battlefields in 2019.

With the increasingly serious homogenization and the reshuffle of the industry, the smart lock industry will enter the era of brand and product intensive cultivation in 2019.
2019 will be a key year for major companies to compete for the market. The most intuitive competition for the market is the brand. Although the smart lock industry is difficult to make a brand with high reputation like mobile phones and home appliances, but with the improvement of people's living standards, when users buy smart locks, the brand also Will be a priority factor. In particular, young people after 80, 90, and 00 now like to check through the online channel before buying things, and then buy them after comparison. The promotion is well done, and the high exposure has naturally become the first choice for young users. Therefore, 2019 must be a key year for brands.
If the brand is the external image of the company, then the product is the internal image and foundation of the company, because only the brand does not have a good product as a support, for the consumer is equivalent to "the light will brag and do not do the real thing." In terms of products, one is to improve the quality, the other is to make differentiated development, and innovation in function and appearance is also essential.

As the saying goes, the channel is the best. In 2019, the channel is also crucial for smart lock companies. At present, in terms of retail, the main battlefields on the line are comprehensive e-commerce platforms such as Jingdong, Tmall, Suning, and vertical e-commerce of Qijia.com and Tuba Rabbit. The offline retail channels are mainly concentrated in building materials and home appliances. Traditional channels such as hypermarkets, home markets, and security markets.

At present, it seems that the highest sales in the online market is the smart lock products in the price range of 1200-2500; most of the agents and dealers are not willing to sell lower prices due to the constraints of cost, storage and other costs. Products, so now the price of offline products is more than 2,000 yuan. Real estate projects are currently the largest channel for shipments. Not long ago, the building materials equipment procurement e-commerce platform - mining general manager Du Jun received an interview with the author, said that at present, the proportion of smart locks in the purchase of locks has been as high as 30% in the procurement platform, and the proportion will be in the future. Constantly improving. It can be seen that the shipment volume of engineering channels is very large, which is a channel that enterprises can't ignore.
In addition, the purchase volume of the door distribution channel is not small, and the growth is also very fast. Because many security door companies have become standard products in order to increase the added value of products. However, it must be mentioned that the door is equipped with the channel real estate engineering channel, the volume is large but the price is relatively low.
These are the four most common channels in the smart lock industry. For most companies, there is currently no company that dares to say that these four channels are very well done, some are biased towards retail, some are biased towards engineering projects, and some are biased towards the door.
Therefore, in 2019, how to balance the proportion between different channels, how to do a good job in channel construction and improvement, and how to do after-sales and service while sinking channels will become a smart lock enterprise in the development process in 2019. A very important part.
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